Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of global turmoil, but wars and geopolitical conflicts typically aren’t long-term growth drivers for gold prices, according to analysts at Bank of America.
In fact, gold has actually dipped 2% in the week since Israel began its airstrikes on Iran. Meanwhile, tensions are ramping as reports Saturday said B-2 stealth bombers are headed over the Pacific. That’s as President Donald Trump weighs involvement in the conflict, potentially with bombers dropping massive “bunker busters” on heavily fortified Iranian nuclear sites.
In a note on Friday, BofA analysts said they expect gold prices to reach $4,000 per ounce in the next year, representing an 18% jump from current levels.
“While the war between Israel and Iran can always escalate, conflicts are not usually a sustained bullish price driver,” they wrote. “As such, the trajectory of the US budget negotiations will be critical, and if fiscal shortfalls don’t decline, the fallout from that plus market volatility may end up attracting more buyers.”
The Israel-Iran conflict has drawn attention away from Trump’s tax-and-spending bill making its way through Congress. While the House and Senate versions have key differences that need to be reconciled before it can become law, the bill’s fiscal impact is still expected to add trillions of dollars to U.S. deficits in the coming years.
That’s raised fears about the sustainability of U.S. debt and global demand for the flood of Treasury bonds that will be issued to finance all the red ink. And amid Trump’s trade war, the U.S. dollar—traditionally viewed as a haven asset—has suffered as well, slumping against other top currencies and providing more upside to gold.
Michaela Handrek-Rehle—Bloomberg via Getty Images
Central banks around the world have dumped $48 billion in Treasuries since late March alone. At the same time, central banks keep buying gold, continuing a trend that began years earlier.
A recent survey from the World Gold Council found that geopolitical instability and potential trade conflicts are chief reasons why central banks in emerging economies are shifting toward gold at a much faster rate than those in advanced economies.
BofA estimated the central banks’ gold holdings are now equivalent to just under 18% of outstanding U.S. public debt, up from 13% a decade ago.
“That tally should be a warning for US policymakers. Ongoing apprehension over trade and US fiscal deficits may well divert more central bank purchases away from US Treasuries to gold,” analysts warned.
Meanwhile, the market still doesn’t appear to be overexposed to gold. BofA estimated that investors have allocated just 3.5% of their portfolios to gold.
And regardless of how Congress ends up rewriting the budget bill, analysts said deficits will remain elevated.
“Therefore, market concerns over fiscal sustainability are unlikely to fade no matter the result of Senate negotiations,” BofA predicted. “Rates volatility and a weaker USD should then keep gold supported, especially if the US Treasury or the Fed are ultimately forced to step in and support markets.”