President Javier Milei’s party is on track to finish first in Argentina’s midterm vote in early counting, putting the libertarian leader on the brink of a major comeback from a September local election defeat that prompted a market selloff and a US financial lifeline.
Milei’s party, La Libertad Avanza, received 41% of votes with 92% of ballots counted, according to data published by Interior Minister Guillermo Francos on Sunday. The main chapter of the rival Peronist party had 24.5% of votes, a much lower level than it garnered in a runaway victory over Milei in a Buenos Aires province vote last month. Milei’s party was winning in most of Argentina’s provinces when official data first published.
Francos said Milei’s party had won 64 seats of the 127 seats up for election in the lower house of Congress.
The midterm, in which half of lower house seats and a third of the Senate were up for election, is a crucial referendum on Milei and the aggressive austerity policies he has unleashed as president. The September result sparked a selloff of the peso amid investor fears over Milei’s standing with voters, eventually leading the Trump administration to intervene in an effort to support both the peso and the government.
Markets will likely rally Monday as election uncertainty fades and Milei’s party, which currently holds only about 15% of seats, gains a stronger congressional foothold to pass key economic reforms.
His candidates stand to approach or even surpass one-third of the seats in the lower house, a key benchmark that would allow him to protect vetoes, which opposition lawmakers have succeeded in overturning in recent months.
The win would also vindicate the extraordinary support US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered Argentina. Just before the election, the US signed a $20 billion currency swap line agreement with Argentina to shore up the beleaguered peso, which is down more than 30% so far this year.
Argentina bonds, which gained the most in emerging markets last year, have also been throttled amid the September election loss and US support package.
The US also directly purchased pesos in the run-up to the vote, and is coordinating additional financial support from Wall Street banks for Milei’s administration. President Donald Trump met Milei at the White House two weeks ago, and the Argentine has emerged as one of the US leader’s most ardent supporters abroad.
The backing from Washington came on top of Argentina’s $20 billion program with the International Monetary Fund that began in April.
A victory could also help turn the page politically for Milei. The president and his party have faced three corruption scandals this year, while Argentina’s slowing economy and frustration with high unemployment rates helped push Milei’s approval to the lowest level of his term ahead of the vote.