The U.S. dollar rose marginally on the DXY foreign currency index over the last 24 hours but no one really believes it will work its way back up to where it was at the start of the year. The greenback is down 9.4% YTD.
President Trump openly admitted a few days ago that he wants “a weaker dollar.”
“Now it doesn’t sound good, but you make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar – not a weak dollar but a weaker dollar – than you do with a strong dollar,” he said on July 25.
The rest of the world has taken him at his word.
“Perhaps what’s happening with the USD’s weakness in the past few sessions is a renewed loss of faith in US leadership, especially with the slew of super-high tariff rates that have been announced in recent days – 50% on Brazil, 50% on India, 100% on semiconductors, etc. This has certainly caused another round of deep consternation toward the US in foreign capitals (Brasília, and New Delhi, for sure), and perhaps without any benefit of solid political-economic goals being achieved by the US administration,” wrote Thierry Wizman, Global FX & Rates Strategist at Macquarie Group, in a recent note.
Wizman believes this will have negative political consequences for the U.S., by driving the BRICS nations further into each others’ arms.
“Brazil may simply drift further toward China, as may India, if the tariff issue is not resolved amicably. The prospect that the BRICS will have even more willingness to ‘gang up’ on the USD and thereby move the needle away from the use of the USD as a reserve currency, is what may be getting more palpable, in the traders’ views, with each new tariff attack on some emerging markets,” he wrote.
It may not stop there. Consider the case of Swizterland, which until recently was a neutral country independent of the E.U., and an ally of the U.S. Trump placed a 39% tariff rate on its exports, which will be catastrophic for its exports of pharmaceuticals, watches, and machine technology. Gold is one of Switzerland’s main exports and gold futures hit a record high this morning after the Financial Times reported that its gold exports, previously exempt, would also face the 39% rate. It briefly topped $3,500 per troy ounce.
“The worst-case scenario has become a reality,” a lobbying group for Swiss corporations told the New York Times. “If this exorbitant customs burden is maintained, the Swiss tech industry’s export business to the U.S.A. will be effectively annihilated.”
The Swiss have a relatively easy way of moving their tariff rate down to 15%: They can join the E.U. That would be a victory for the E.U. and an odd outcome for Trump, given that he once said “the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States.”
Here’s a snapshot of the action prior to the opening bell in New York:
- S&P 500 futures were up 0.34% this morning, premarket, after the index closed flat yesterday.
- STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.15% in early trading.
- The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.11% in early trading.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1.85%.
- China’s CSI 300 was down 0.24%.
- The South Korea KOSPI was down 0.55%.
- India’s Nifty 50 was down 0.77%.
- Bitcoin rose to $116.5K.