DC’s James Wan’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is headed for one of the lowest starts in the history of the DC Cinematic Universe with a projected four-day Christmas weekend gross in the $40 million to $45 million range. The good news: It can still claim a No. 1 finish and is faring slightly better than leading tracking services had predicted.
The movie earned an estimated $13.7 million Friday from 3,706 theaters, including $4.5 million in Thursday previews. Hollywood studios are never happy when Christmas Day falls on a Monday since the weekend box office has to compete with final Christmas preparations, including travel and gift buying.
However, Aquaman 2 has larger issues than just that. The big-budget tentpole, reteaming Wan and star Jason Momoa, has been largely rebuked by critics and only earned a B CinemaScore from audiences. The sequel, which faced a troubled road to the big screen, marks the end of an era as new DC chiefs James Gunn and Peter Safran reboot the DC Universe with 2025’s Superman: Legacy. (Momoa himself has all but said there won’t be an Aquaman threequel.)
In 2018, the first Aquaman was the king of the year-end holiday when swimming to a three-day opening of $67.9 million over the Dec. 21-23 weekend. Through Christmas Day — a Tuesday that year — its domestic tally was a rousing $105.4 million (that included several million in special sneak peeks the previous weekend). The movie went on to earn $335.1 million domestically and $1.15 billion globally, the best showing ever for a DCEU title, not adjusted for inflation.
Wan’s movie lends further credence to the superhero fatigue theory. Even the most ardent fanboys are weary. Aquaman 2 is also trailing the recent $46.1 million opening of box office debacle The Marvels, from rival Marvel Studios.
A slew of other films also opened Friday. Warners has no fewer than three year-end holiday event movies — Aquaman, Wonka, which opened last weekend, and The Color Purple — a daring feat (to boot, two are musicals).
In yet another test of the appetite for theatrical animated fare, and especially original stories, Illumination and Universal are contributing Migration to the holiday mix for families.
The family pic, which earned an A CinemaScore, is expected to earn $13 million for the weekend proper from 3,761 theaters and $18 million for the four days, also ahead of what some tracking services had predicted.
The final verdict for Migration won’t be rendered until New Year’s weekend. There’s no more lucrative stretch of the moviegoing year than the week between Christmas and New Year’s.
Migration will come in No. 3 behind Aquaman and Wonka, as the Timothée Chalamet starrer is projected to gross a pleasing $30 million for the four days.
Columbia/Sony’s edgy romantic-comedy Anyone but You is unwrapping a fourth-place finish with an estimated $9 million from 3,055 theaters for the four days. The pic, starring Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell, earned a B+ CinemaScore. (No studio likes anything other than some variation of an A grade for most movies.)
Females made up 67 percent of Friday ticket buyers, while males made up 66 percent of A24’s Zac Efron-led wrestling family drama The Iron Claw, another title on the Christmas marquee movie. Iron Claw is pacing to open to $8 million, also head of tracking.
Estimates could shift by Sunday morning.
More to come.