Republicans had been looking at the 2026 Senate map and thinking that the party might be in a strong position to expand its majority. At least that was the thinking when Donald Trump’s second administration began.
The president took office and proceeded to embark on a series of bad policies that included tariffs that slowed economic growth and raised prices. The president also got his party’s majorities in Congress to pass a tax cut for the wealthy bill that was, in tiny part, paid for by massive cuts to food and health insurance subsidies. The result of these policies is that people are losing their health insurance or have seen their premiums skyrocket.
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Trump then started a war of choice in the Middle East, which has caused fuel costs to surge.
Democrats have seized on affordability as the defining issue of the midterm election. Democrats have also had a series of recruiting victories for Senate races, where they have gotten the candidates that they wanted in states like Alaska and North Carolina, as Republicans built their strategy on maintaining their progress with Latino voters who have abandoned them due to Trump’s immigration policies.
The political climate has created a perfect storm in Texas, where two unpopular Republicans are locked in a runoff, and Democrats have their preferred candidate.
Signs are growing that an upset could be brewing in the Lone Star state, as a new poll done by Impact Research for the Talarico campaign revealed, “Talarico is leading both Cornyn and Paxton. Cornyn trails Talarico by 2 points (43% Talarico / 41% Cornyn) and Paxton trails him by 1 (44% Talarico / 43% Paxton).”
To better understand what is brewing and how this is happening, let’s dig into the numbers.