In midterm elections in which control of all or part of Congress flips away from the president’s party, a common pattern emerges.
The party out of power grows stronger on the hypothetical midterm-election ballot as the year moves toward Election Day.
A president isn’t on the midterm ballot, but his/her popularity and the perception of how the country is doing factor in to how voters vote in a midterm election.
The perception of both Donald Trump’s performance and the country’s current situation is not good.
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A new Quinnipiac University Poll revealed:
Thirty-eight percent of voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 56 percent disapprove, essentially unchanged from Quinnipiac University’s March 9, 2026 poll.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of the economy, 38 percent of voters approve, while 58 percent disapprove. Trump’s approval for his handling of the economy matches the approval he received in Quinnipiac University’s October 22, 2025 poll, and is the lowest approval on the economy he has ever received.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of foreign policy, 36 percent of voters approve, while 59 percent disapprove. In Quinnipiac University’s March 9 poll, 40 percent approved and 57 percent disapproved.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of the situation with Iran, 34 percent of voters approve, while 59 percent disapprove. In Quinnipiac University’s March 9 poll, 38 percent approved and 57 percent disapproved.
Depending on the issue, Trump’s numbers are either matching his all-time lows or decreasing, which definitely has an impact on the generic congressional ballot.
You might be thinking that if Democrats are doing well, it is because their base is more motivated than the Republicans.
However, this is what Quinnipiac found:
If the election were held today, 51 percent of voters would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 40 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House.
Among independents, 57 percent would want to see the Democratic Party win control, while 26 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control, with 17 percent not offering an opinion.
It isn’t Democrats who are powering the blue wave, if one arrives, but Independents who have swung toward supporting Democratic candidates.
If Democrats continue to grow or maintain this generic ballot lead, history shows that they will be extremely likely to win back the House. If the lead continues to grow, it will suggest increasing danger for House Republicans, and it will also suggest that Republican Senate seats could also be endangered.
The big takeaway from this data is that Independents are powering Democrats to an even stronger position in the midterm election.
What do you think? Are Democrats on their way to a midterm win? Share your thoughts in the comments below.