A new poll of the first round of voting in the Alaska House special election was released and it showed Sarah Palin with only 19% of the vote and leading Santa Clause by just 13 points.
Alaska Survey Research tweeted their results:
Q: In late May and early June, a vote-by-mail election will be held to elect a replacement for Congressman Don Young. If you were voting today, for whom would you vote?
Palin 19%
Begich 16%
Gross 13%
Claus 6%
Peltola 5%
Constant 5%
Sweeney 4%
…
2/16 pic.twitter.com/oZBr8dIkBL— Ivan Moore ???????? (@IvanMoore1) May 10, 2022
The top four finishers in round one of the voting go to a ranked-choice runoff, and in each of the models for the ranked-choice voting Palin is eliminated.
The answer to why Palin is eliminated can be found in the approval ratings for each candidate:
Positive – Negative – No opinion – Never heard
Palin 36-59-4-1
Begich 42-41-14-4
Gross 35-46-14-5
Claus 36-23-33-8
Peltola 18-6-20-56
Constant 21-21-15-44
Sweeney 20-17-25-37
Revak 13-27-21-39
Lowenfels 27-11-22-41
Wool 14-12-20-54
Halcro 26-23-20-31
Coghill 22-30-22-2611/16
— Ivan Moore ???????? (@IvanMoore1) May 10, 2022
A good rule of thumb when it comes to ranked voting is that the candidate with the nearly 60% negative rating does not have a good chance at victory in a ranked voting general election. Palin has the highest negatives of anyone in the primary, and while her name recognition should be more than enough to get her through the primary, her high unfavorable rating makes it unlikely that she can win a general election.
Palin is barely just beating Santa in the primary, and if anyone symbolizes the socialism that Sarah Palin complains about it is a guy who shows up at people’s houses just to give them free stuff.
If Sarah Palin loses the general election, the last dim ember of celebrity that is flickering off in the Wasilla distance will finally go dark.
Mr. Easley is the managing editor. He is also a White House Press Pool and a Congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
Awards and Professional Memberships
Member of the Society of Professional Journalists and The American Political Science Association