Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ended less than two hours after they began on Monday in the wake of a devastating attack by Ukraine against Russia.
The talks, which took place in Istanbul, Turkey, are the latest in ongoing efforts by the two neighboring nations and the Trump administration to bring an end to a war that has cost tens of thousands of lives and billions of dollars. President Donald Trump has been critical of both countries since he returned to office in January and has recently threatened to walk away from the negotiations.
Between Ukraine’s Sunday strike and Russia’s massive response—only the latest exchange in an intense month of fighting—and the slow-moving peace talks, could Trump follow through on his threat to walk away?
In Sunday’s operation, the Ukrainian state hit at least 40 Russian airplanes at four military bases—almost one-third of the country’s strategic bomber fleet.
The attack was perhaps the single most costly strike for the Russians since the start of the war, destroying about $7 billion in property. The operation was code-named “Spider’s Web” or “Spiderweb” and hit “34% of [Russia’s] strategic cruise missile carriers,” according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
It had apparently been planned a year and half and included hitting regions in Russia as far as 4,300 miles from Ukraine. Despite the massive logistical prep time, Ukraine had reportedly declined to give the United States forewarning about the attack that would likely scuttle the peace talks set for a day later.
Russia quickly responded to the Ukrainian strike over the weekend, launching 472 drones of its own, eclipsing a record for the war for total drones in one night.
In an interview with Fox’s Maria Bartiromo, Victoria Coates, vice president of the Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy at The Heritage Foundation, said that “the Ukrainian operation in its sophistication and surprise nature is an important step for Ukraine to gain leverage of the peace talks. There’s pretty pervasive narrative propagated by the Russians themselves that Russian victory was inevitable.”
Related: Trump’s Leaked Peace Plan Reportedly Causing ‘Panic’ In Ukraine, Europe
Trump harshly criticized Russia’s leadership last week for its failure to make progress on a long-term ceasefire. “What [Russian President] Vladimir Putin doesn’t realize is that if it weren’t for me, lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia, and I mean REALLY BAD. He’s playing with fire!” the president wrote on Truth Social on May 27.
Trump also showed a willingness to criticize Zelenskyy in an explosive Oval Office meeting in February, at which the American president told his Ukrainian counterpart, “You’re gambling with World War III, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that’s backed you far more than a lot of people say they should have.”
May was a particularly intense month of fighting. During the first week of the month, in an operation that appeared designed to disrupt Victory in Europe Day celebrations in Russia, Ukraine launched its largest drone strike up to that point in the war. The offensive, which also included rocket strikes, saw Ukraine send more than 520 drones into the Russian Federation overnight. The massive air attack grounded or disrupted hundreds of flights at airports around the country.
Drone strikes continued throughout the month of May even as talks between the two countries have led to some prisoner swaps. On May 23, the two countries agreed to hand over 390 soldiers and civilians each in the largest prisoner exchange up to that time.
But so far, the talks have not led to long-term peace. The Russian state launched its own aerial assault beginning on the night of May 24, sending 367 drones and missiles into the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. At the time, it was the largest attack by Russia in a single night since Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022.
Experts have long warned that Russia has strategic advantages in its war with its neighbor to the west.
“The success of Russia’s Donbas campaign owes much to Moscow’s traditional advantages in munitions and manpower, along with an apparent disregard for losses,” Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote for the Atlantic Council in October.
Related: Trump Speaks With Putin, Zelenskyy – Says Ceasefire Negotiations to Start ‘Immediately’
The U.S. has given Ukraine $175 billion in aid, even as its chances of driving Russia out of its territory remain bleak.
Bartiromo asked how the territorial dispute would ultimately be settled between the two nations, to which Coates replied, “The key for the Trump administration is to make sure Putin and Russia are deterred, and they take whatever it is that they could get out of this deal, and they don’t do it again, and they don’t threaten the NATO member that would involve the United States.”
A Pew Research poll conducted in March found that 53% of Americans do not believe the U.S. has a responsibility to assist Ukraine with its defense. Trump has recently considered imposing additional sanctions on Russia but has refrained from doing so thus far.
Syndicated with permission from The Daily Signal.