Pixar and Disney’s Lightyear is in a surprise close battle for the No. 1 spot at the Father’s Day and Juneteenth holiday box office with holdover Jurassic World Dominion.
The animated family film was expected to open to at least $70 million to $85 million in North America, but now it looks like Lightyear may only buzz to $52 million to $55 million for the three-day weekend.
Universal and Amblin’s Jurassic World Dominion could stomp to $57 million in its second outing.
Monday is a federal holiday honoring Juneteenth, so Monday could look more like a Saturday and Sunday in terms of traffic at the box office. Universal insiders believe Jurassic World 3‘s domestic total could climb as high as $66 million for the four days.
Lightyear could come close to $60 million through Monday, but the Toy Story spinoff’s start is a major disappointment for Pixar.
Chris Evans voices the iconic Space Ranger in the origin tale, which marks Pixar’s return to the big screen after seeing several of its animated family films head straight for Disney+ due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lightyear serves as a test for the strength of the family market as the box office continues to recover.
The animated film currently has a Rotten Tomatoes score of 80 percent, which is definitely on the lower end for a Pixar offering, particularly for the Toy Story franchise. Audiences gave it an A- CinemaScore. They’ll be plenty of Monday quarterbacking as to what went wrong once the weekend plays out.
Lightyear did place No. 1 on Friday with an opening day gross of $20.7 million. Various models show Jurassic World Dominion, which grossed $15.7 million, overtaking the Pixar title on Saturday and on Sunday. Dominion, which has crossed the $500 million mark globally, should end the weekend with a domestic tally of $257 million.
Paramount and Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick remains a formidable force in its fourth weekend. The pic is looking at a three-day gross of $40 million for a domestic tally of $462 million through Sunday as it heads for the $500 million mark.
Estimates will be updated on Sunday.