On Friday, CNN political analyst Harry Enten, speaking with Sara Sidner, shared a powerful reminder of why Republicans have to get out and vote in the midterms.
Enten asserted that current polling averages in key Senate races, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Texas, Michigan, Ohio, show Democrats with small leads or ties in most of them. Democrats likely need to win at least three of these for Senate control.
Looking at historical final Senate poll aggregates in close races, margins within 5 points since 1998, the average error rate is 3.7 points.
Because most of these battleground races are well within the historical average error, the Senate is currently too close. In past cycles, Democrats have often seen themselves ahead in the polls only for Republicans to outperform on Election Day.
Enten called it “big siren warning sign for Democrats.”
Sidner asked, “And that is the question that I would like you to answer. On average, when you look at these polls, what’s the error? What happens?”
Enten replied, “Yeah. Okay. So let’s take a look at the final polling averages. That is the polls conducted over the final 21 days in each state, compile up an average in them, and let’s see how they do historically speaking. And keep these numbers in mind on your screen.”
“Take a look here. Okay. Final Senate poll aggregates in close races, that is races within 5 points. The average race— look at this— the average error rate, they’re off by 3.7 percentage points.”
“Polls are a tool. Poll aggregates are a tool. When you have all of these close races, you have to keep this in mind. Those races, most of those races on the last screen, are well within that average error rate.”
“And that is why the Senate at this point is too close to call if these poll averages hold and they go to Election Day with what we saw on slide number 1, with all these races, many of which are well within 3 points.”
Sidner asked, “OK, so what would this look like if the error went to the Republican side? Because when you look at this average and then you go back, there’s only one match what the polling shows right now.”
Enten responded, “That’s exactly right. And this, to me, is the big siren warning sign for Democrats right here. Because I know you feel like it’s Lucy and the football. You’ve seen yourselves ahead before, and then Election Day, the votes are cast and counted, and the Republicans come out ahead.”
“So let’s just say, in fact, we get this average error rate, and it goes, and the Republicans outperform their polls yet again. This is what we’re talking about. The 2026 Senate map, if, in fact, Republicans outperform the averages by 3.75 points.”
“Look at this. This is the key nugget on your bottom right of the screen. Republicans would get 52 seats, Democrats would get 48. Republicans would easily maintain control of the U.S. House. They’d win up here in Maine. They’d win in Michigan. They’d win down here in Texas. They’d win in Kansas. They’d win in Iowa. And they’d also win— win— I’m going to come over to Sarah’s side of the screen right here. They’d win in Alaska.”
Watch:
🚨 JUST IN: CNN says Republicans HOLD CONTROL of the US Senate 52-48 if the average poll error occurs for Republicans
THEY’D LOSE MICHIGAN.
“The average error rate, off by 3.7 points!”
“Siren warning for Democrats…if we get this average error rate…THIS is what we’re talking about…Republicans would get 52 seats, Democrats would get 48.”
In 2024, Mike Rogers came within roughly 19,000 votes of winning Michigan. HE CAN DO IT THIS TIME
The polls have underestimated Trump voters in every one of his elections. If they vote, we win.
This is why ALL OF US in EVERY STATE need to vote no matter what
Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, it’s all winnable!
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 16, 2026
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