The blue wave has been a growing topic of conversation as Democratic momentum has expanded. For their part, Democrats have done a good job of reacting to the expanding map and making changes to their strategy as more seats and districts have come into play.
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Democrats are gonna win the House. They only need to flip four seats. They could flip four seats in Pennsylvania and take control of the House. In fact, they probably will flip four seats in Pennsylvania. They could flip three seats in Iowa. They’re gonna gain multiple seats in California, even though I expect the House to be long decided by the time California rolls around. There, there are just numerous states. Ohio, they could make surprising, they could make surprising gains in Ohio. There, there are just lots and lots of possible opportunities and options on the map for Democrats. And conversely, there are very few areas for Republican pickups.
There are some from the gerrymandered districts, but being that the Texas gerrymander did not work out like they thought it would in Texas, the Republican gerrymander, because Republicans based their gerrymander on Hispanic voters, and the idea that the movement in Hispanic voters in 2024 was permanent, or at least would last for more than one election cycle, and it turned out that it didn’t, and Hispanic voters have swung more strongly to the left in less than two years,
Democrats have been feeling good about winning back the House since January 2025. They knew this wasn’t going to last for Republicans, and then as soon as Republicans abdicated any sort of oversight, responsibility, or ability they then knew that they were almost a shoo-in to win back the House.
My map ends up with a 53-47 Democratic majority in the Senate. That’s my most likely scenario. Maine flips, Ohio flips, North Carolina flips. I think that’s a given. Texas flips and Kansas flips. I don’t feel as confident in Iowa. You’ll see Michigan is still blue because I think I think Mike Rogers is cooked. I think Mike Rogers has been cooked for a while. I think the Trump rally is what did it.
My Senate Map:
You’ll notice Ohio flips because, again, I think Jon Husted’s been John Husted’s never really been leading that race. That Sharrod Brown’s been winning for months now, and I don’t think that changes on Election Day. Minnesota, Republicans never really had a chance in Minnesota. Michelle Tafoya is not a good candidate. That was fool’s gold. North Carolina’s been done since Roy Cooper entered that race.
The day Roy Cooper entered that election was the day it was over. Roy Cooper is a really good governor. He’s a really good public servant. He’s gonna be very popular, and he’s gonna be an amazing senator for North Carolina. Georgia, Republicans thought they had a chance in Georgia, but Jon Ossoff put them away very quickly. It got to the point where last month Republicans pulled out of Georgia, and then Democrats pulled out of Georgia too Kansas. Kansas is really interesting because Adam Hamilton is a really good candidate. Roger Marshall has been pretty much exposed in this election by having to run against somebody. And Marshall is one of those cases in Senate races where he’s actually embraced Trump more tightly, even though Trump is unpopular.
And then what really decided and made up my mind on Hamilton wasn’t just the polling or the turnout or any of the numbers, it was really that ad that Marshall released on his own a couple of days ago that he went to war about the law- lawsuits about his med- him suing his patients for delinquent bills. And he did it behind his campaign’s back and never consulted his campaign. So yeah, that, that told me he’s toast.
That pretty much did it for me on that one. You’ll notice Iowa, I wouldn’t be surprised if Iowa flipped. I didn’t color in– I don’t think I colored in Mississippi here. Maybe it’s still red. Mississippi, I think Democrats get within single digits. Florida, I think, is just too Republican, and Angie Nixon is not the right candidate to flip that seat. Doug Jolly, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if Doug Jolly beat Byron Donalds in the governor’s race. That wouldn’t be surprising at all.
Texas, Talarico. I’m gonna say this, and people may disagree, but I believe Texas was doomed the minute Trump booted Cornyn from the ticket and put Paxton in there. I believe Ken Paxton is another one, just like Roger Marshall, another Republican candidate who has been exposed. These are elected officials who have survived for a long time in heavily Republican states because they’ve never seriously been challenged. Marshall isn’t as corrupt as Ken Paxton, who actually gives Donald Trump a run for his money. But they’re both flawed. They’re both running against Democrats, who have a religious background, and that’s not– I won’t say it’s totally different than the Republican- for the Democratic Party, but it’s not totally different. Raphael Warnock is the template, and look how successful he’s been in Georgia, Reverend Warnock. So that’s how that’s happening, and I think there’s a lot of parallels between what’s happening in Texas and what’s happening in Kansas.
Iowa. I still have Iowa red because I just don’t know if Josh Turick is gonna get over the line and win. I, that could be close, but I don’t know if Turek can just have just enough. But if there’s a huge blue wave, don’t be surprised if that 53-47 Democratic advantage becomes a 54 to 46 and Democrats win Iowa And also, I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if things get really big, if theyf we end up seeing a nine-vote margin for Democrats and they pick up one more.
South Carolina. South Carolina, Darlene Graham is horrible As somebody who spent a little bit of time in South Carolina, it’s a really heavy load for Dr. Annie Andrews to win that race. She’s gonna come close. If things go really well for Democrats, we could mark that blue, and there goes your 55-45 Democratic advantage. If that happens, Democrats are set up probably to control the Senate for several election cycles, ’cause you don’t wipe out that kind of advantage in one cycle.
Republicans always think every election is stolen because they expect to win. Trump is going to claim that this election was stolen if Republicans lose the House and Senate, so Democrats need to be assertive and expect to win.
Democrats will win the House and are in a good position to win the Senate.
What Democrats should expect from a blue wave victory.
Don’t hope for victory; expect it.
That is the way Trump will be overcome.
What are you expecting on Election Night? Share your ideas in the comments below.