The nightmare scenario for Republican strategists wasn’t that a wave of Republicans would vote for Democratic candidates. That was never going to happen. The scenario that Republicans feared the most was a wave of votes for Democratic candidates and a decline in turnout for Republicans.
It is early, and there are hours left to go on election day, but so far, it looks like Republicans are having a turnout problem in several states.
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Let’s take a quick peek at a state that many analysts thought might be a turnout bellwether, and that is Virginia.
G. Elliot Morris posted on X:
Fresh E-Day turnout data in VA, courtesy of State Navigate, implies Dem **E Day voters** are voting at a rate about 9-10 percentage points higher than Republicans. This is on top of the Democratic lead in engaging early voters in the state.
If Democrats maintain this Election Day voting edge when combined with their early voting lead, the conditions will be set for a Democratic blowout in the state.
Let’s hop over to Arizona, where the ABC15 data guru Garrett Archer posted on X:
Election day ballot types so far in Maricopa as of 9am. Turnout is running under 2022.
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Here are some comparisons to 2024 and 2022. The Republican advantage it’s similar to 2024. Volume remains below 2022.
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The decline in election day turnout is almost exclusively on the GOP side so far. Whoever is in charge of the button should start thinking about breaking the glass.
The Election Day turnout declines are coming from one side. Republicans aren’t showing up to vote.
Then there is Georgia.